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Our U.S. recession dashboard points to recession starting by mid-2020

Submitted by Your Personal CFO - Bourbon Financial Management on August 13th, 2019

Economy

Our U.S. recession dashboard points to recession starting by mid-2020.png

Model based recession probability

Submitted by Your Personal CFO - Bourbon Financial Management on August 13th, 2019

Economy

Model based recession probability.png

30-year fixed mortgage rate

Submitted by Your Personal CFO - Bourbon Financial Management on August 13th, 2019

Economy

30-year fixed mortgage rate.png

Average of the four valuation indicators since 1900 (Geometric)

Submitted by Your Personal CFO - Bourbon Financial Management on August 13th, 2019

Economy

Average of the four valuation indicators since 1900 (Geometric).png

Average of the four valuation indicators since 1900

Submitted by Your Personal CFO - Bourbon Financial Management on August 13th, 2019

Economy

Average of the four valuation indicators since 1900.png

10-year nominal total return

Submitted by Your Personal CFO - Bourbon Financial Management on August 13th, 2019

Economy

10-year nominal total return.png

Q ratio and P/E10 adjusted to their geometric means with the real S&P composite regression to trend

Submitted by Your Personal CFO - Bourbon Financial Management on August 13th, 2019

Q ratio and PE10 adjusted to their geometric means with the real S&P composite regression to trend.png

Key contributors to NBER-Dated U.S. recessions

Submitted by Your Personal CFO - Bourbon Financial Management on August 13th, 2019

Economy

Key contributors to NBER-Dated U.S. recessions.png

Hedge funds historically have performed well during periods of rising interest rates

Submitted by Your Personal CFO - Bourbon Financial Management on July 30th, 2019

Hedge funds historically have performed well during periods of rising interest rates.png

Gold can experience short rallies within a bear supercycle

Submitted by Your Personal CFO - Bourbon Financial Management on July 30th, 2019

Economy

Gold can experience short rallies within a bear supercycle.png

Our U.S. recession dashboard points to recession starting by mid-2020

Model based recession probability

30-year fixed mortgage rate

Average of the four valuation indicators since 1900 (Geometric)

Average of the four valuation indicators since 1900

10-year nominal total return

Q ratio and P/E10 adjusted to their geometric means with the real S&P composite regression to trend

Key contributors to NBER-Dated U.S. recessions

Hedge funds historically have performed well during periods of rising interest rates

Gold can experience short rallies within a bear supercycle

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